Back Stats
Primera DivisiĂłn - Apertura · Mar 21, 2026 22:30

Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 35
VS

Cerro
PWR 0
63% 21% 16%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Peñarol Montevideo Win
Score
?
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (19%)3-0 (18%)1-0 (13%)0-0 (4%)2-1 (4%)3-1 (4%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
BTTS No
No 17%
Over 3.5
12%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense0
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Peñarol Montev… WDWDW
STABLE
Cerro LLDDL
DOWN
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 0 rules
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk31%
Accuracy38%
Limited data available (Tier 3)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw rateHome team draws 33% at home = very high riskAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (31.3%) - VETO 1X2 | Tier 3 data without strong odds (need 85%+)
Expected Goals (xG)
2.95
Peñarol Montev…
vs
0.20
Cerro
Goal Probability
Peñarol Mon…
0
5%
1
15%
2
23%
3
22%
4
17%
Cerro
0
82%
1
16%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (23%)2-0 (17%)0-0 (16%)1-1 (9%)3-0 (8%)2-1 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
LineOverUnderPick
0.5 84% 16% OVER
1.5 56% 45% -
2.5 29% 72% UNDER
3.5 12% 88% UNDER
4.5 4% 96% UNDER
5.5 1% 99% UNDER
6.5 0% 100% UNDER
League Position
#3
Peñarol Mon…
+13
Gap
#16
Cerro
WR 67% 13 pts WR 0% 2 pts
Peñarol Montev… 16.0%
Mar 14 Peñarol… v Albion … 0-1
Mar 07 Peñarol… v Danubio 1-1
Mar 01 Peñarol… v Club Na… 0-1
Feb 25 Peñarol… v Indepen… 0-0
Feb 22 Peñarol… v Deporti… 2-1
Feb 18 Peñarol… v Indepen… 1-2
Feb 15 Peñarol… v Central… 2-1
Feb 07 Peñarol… v Atletic… 3-1
Feb 01 Peñarol… v Club Na… 0-0
Jan 23 Peñarol… v Boston … 2-2
Cerro 4.0%
Mar 14 Cerro v Progreso 0-1
Mar 08 Cerro v Racing … 1-0
Feb 27 Cerro v Boston … 1-1
Feb 20 Cerro v Liverpo… 1-1
Feb 16 Cerro v Albion … 3-0
Feb 09 Cerro v Danubio 0-1
Decision Breakdown
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%)TOP3vsBot (75.8%)M85+S60 (75.3%)GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%)POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
90%
Market
50%
High draw risk (26%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Peñarol Montevideo in strong form (3W in last 5)
Cerro struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.