USL Championship · Mar 22, 2026 02:00
Sacramento Republic
PWR 54
Monterey Bay
PWR 36
Sacramento Republic
PWR 54
2-1
predicted
Monterey Bay
PWR 36
51%
24%
25%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Sacramento Republic Win
Score
2-1
Confidence
55%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (19%)3-0 (18%)1-0 (13%)0-0 (5%)2-1 (4%)3-1 (4%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
BTTS
No
No 17%
Over 3.5
8%
Team Comparison
48Attack30
72Defense49
Goals/G
1.40.9
Conc/G
0.81.5
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Sacramento Rep…
DWLDL
STABLE
Monterey Bay
DLDLL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk28%
Accuracy56%
POSITION_GAPPOINTS_GAP
Standings data available (Tier 2)Away team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (28.3%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.88
Sacramento Rep…vs
0.20
Monterey BayGoal Probability
Sacramento …
0
6%
1
16%
2
23%
3
22%
4
16%
Monterey Bay
0
82%
1
16%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (24%)0-0 (20%)2-0 (15%)1-1 (10%)0-1 (8%)3-0 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 80% | 20% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 49% | 52% | - |
| 2.5 | 22% | 78% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 8% | 92% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 3% | 98% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#5
Sacramento …+19
Gap#24
Monterey Bay
WR 42% 68 pts
WR 27% 26 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Re… | 43 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 59 | 35 | 68 |
| Monterey Bay | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 32 | 26 |
Sacramento Rep…
8.0%
| Mar 14 | Sacrame… v Lexingt… | 0-0 |
| Mar 08 | Sacrame… v FC Tulsa | 2-0 |
| Feb 28 | Sacrame… v Colorad… | 1-0 |
| Nov 03 | Sacrame… v Orange … | 0-0 |
| Oct 26 | Sacrame… v Miami FC | 0-1 |
| Oct 23 | Sacrame… v Charles… | 1-0 |
| Oct 17 | Sacrame… v Lexingt… | 2-2 |
| Oct 11 | Sacrame… v Alloa A… | 3-2 |
| Oct 02 | Sacrame… v Orange … | 2-1 |
| Sep 28 | Sacrame… v Montere… | 1-0 |
Monterey Bay
4.0%
| Mar 15 | Montere… v El Paso… | 0-0 |
| Mar 08 | Montere… v Oakland… | 0-1 |
| Oct 26 | Montere… v Las Veg… | 1-1 |
| Oct 19 | Montere… v Pittsbu… | 0-3 |
| Oct 04 | Montere… v Tampa B… | 4-0 |
| Sep 28 | Montere… v Sacrame… | 1-0 |
| Sep 21 | Montere… v New Mex… | 1-1 |
| Aug 31 | Montere… v Oakland… | 1-0 |
| Aug 17 | Montere… v El Paso… | 2-2 |
| Jun 29 | Montere… v Oakland… | 2-1 |
Head-to-Head (1)
| Sep 28, 2025 | Monterey Bay | 1-0 | Sacramento Re… |
Decision Breakdown
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (33%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Monterey Bay struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.