Serie A · Mar 16, 2026 23:00
Chapecoense
PWR 35
Gremio
PWR 0
Chapecoense
PWR 35
VS
Gremio
PWR 0
37%
27%
36%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Chapecoense Win
Score
?
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (13%)1-0 (11%)3-0 (11%)2-1 (9%)1-1 (7%)3-1 (7%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.7x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.57x
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
BTTS
No 44%
Over 3.5
40%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense0
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Chapecoense
LWLLL
STABLE
Gremio
DWLWL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk31%
Accuracy38%
Odds data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw rateHome team draws 50% at home = very high riskH2H: 1/4 draws (25%) = HIGH riskCombined DR 75% = 50.7% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (31.3%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.40
Chapecoensevs
0.67
GremioGoal Probability
Chapecoense
0
9%
1
22%
2
26%
3
21%
4
13%
Gremio
0
51%
1
34%
2
12%
3
3%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (10%)1-2 (9%)2-1 (8%)0-1 (7%)2-2 (7%)0-2 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 96% | 4% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% | - |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% | - |
| 4.5 | 22% | 78% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 11% | 90% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 5% | 96% | UNDER |
League Position
#14
Chapecoense-5
Gap#9
Gremio
WR 50% 5 pts
WR 0% 7 pts
Chapecoense
4.0%
| Mar 12 | Chapeco… v São Pau… | 2-0 |
| Mar 08 | Chapeco… v Barra | 1-0 |
| Mar 01 | Chapeco… v Barra | 3-1 |
| Feb 22 | Chapeco… v Brusque | 3-0 |
| Feb 14 | Chapeco… v Brusque | 1-0 |
| Feb 11 | Chapeco… v Coritiba | 3-3 |
| Feb 08 | Chapeco… v Criciúma | 0-0 |
| Feb 05 | Chapeco… v Vasco D… | 1-1 |
| Feb 01 | Chapeco… v Criciúma | 1-2 |
| Jan 28 | Chapeco… v Santos | 4-2 |
Gremio
10.0%
| Mar 13 | Gremio v RB Brag… | 1-1 |
| Feb 26 | Gremio v Atletic… | 2-1 |
| Feb 12 | Gremio v São Pau… | 2-0 |
| Feb 05 | Gremio v Botafogo | 5-3 |
| Jan 28 | Gremio v Flumine… | 2-1 |
| Jul 26 | Gremio v Chapeco… | 0-0 |
| Apr 15 | Gremio v Chapeco… | 0-1 |
| Nov 20 | Gremio v Chapeco… | 1-3 |
| Aug 09 | Gremio v Chapeco… | 2-1 |
Head-to-Head (4)
| Jul 26, 2022 | Chapecoense | 0-0 | Gremio |
| Apr 15, 2022 | Gremio | 0-1 | Chapecoense |
| Nov 20, 2021 | Chapecoense | 1-3 | Gremio |
| Aug 09, 2021 | Gremio | 2-1 | Chapecoense |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
90%
Standings
40%
Market
38%
High draw risk (42%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Chapecoense struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.