Ligue 1 · Mar 22, 2026 16:15
Marseille
PWR 48
Lille
PWR 37
Marseille
PWR 48
4-2
predicted
Lille
PWR 37
45%
25%
30%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Marseille Win
Score
4-2
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
0-0 (23%)1-0 (19%)0-1 (15%)1-1 (12%)2-0 (8%)2-1 (5%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
18%
Under 2.5
82%
82%
BTTS
No
No 26%
Over 3.5
9%
Team Comparison
69Attack51
67Defense55
Goals/G
2.31.7
Conc/G
1.11.5
Possession
?%?%
Corners/G
??
Shots/G
??
Fouls/G
??
Marseille
WWDWL
STABLE
Lille
WLDWW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk27%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw rateH2H: 5/10 draws (50%) = VERY HIGH riskConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (26.9%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.82
Marseillevs
0.63
LilleGoal Probability
Marseille
0
44%
1
36%
2
15%
3
4%
4
1%
Lille
0
53%
1
34%
2
11%
3
2%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (19%)0-1 (16%)1-0 (15%)1-1 (13%)0-2 (7%)2-0 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 82% | 19% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% | - |
| 2.5 | 24% | 76% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 3% | 97% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#3
Marseille+2
Gap#5
Lille
WR 69% 49 pts
WR 46% 44 pts
Marseille
14.0%
| Mar 13 | Marseil… v Auxerre | 1-0 |
| Mar 07 | Marseil… v Toulouse | 0-1 |
| Mar 04 | Marseil… v Toulouse | 2-2 |
| Mar 01 | Marseil… v Lyon | 3-2 |
| Feb 20 | Marseil… v Stade B… | 2-0 |
| Feb 14 | Marseil… v Strasbo… | 2-2 |
| Feb 08 | Marseil… v Paris S… | 5-0 |
| Feb 03 | Marseil… v Rennes … | 3-0 |
| Jan 31 | Marseil… v Paris FC | 2-2 |
| Jan 28 | Marseil… v Club Br… | 3-0 |
Lille
14.0%
| Mar 15 | Lille v Rennes … | 1-2 |
| Mar 12 | Lille v Aston V… | 0-1 |
| Mar 08 | Lille v Lorient | 1-1 |
| Mar 01 | Lille v Nantes | 1-0 |
| Feb 26 | Lille v FK Crve… | 0-1 |
| Feb 22 | Lille v Angers | 0-1 |
| Feb 19 | Lille v FK Crve… | 0-1 |
| Feb 14 | Lille v Stade B… | 1-1 |
| Feb 06 | Lille v Metz | 0-0 |
| Feb 01 | Lille v Lyon | 1-0 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Dec 05, 2025 | Lille | 1-0 | Marseille |
| May 04, 2025 | Lille | 1-1 | Marseille |
| Jan 14, 2025 | Marseille | 1-1 | Lille |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Marseille | 1-1 | Lille |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Marseille | 1-1 | Lille |
| Apr 05, 2024 | Lille | 3-1 | Marseille |
| Apr 05, 2024 | Lille | 3-1 | Marseille |
| Nov 04, 2023 | Marseille | 0-0 | Lille |
| May 20, 2023 | Lille | 2-1 | Marseille |
| Sep 10, 2022 | Marseille | 2-1 | Lille |
Decision Breakdown
HWR60+ (68.3%)
Player
40%
Momentum
53%
Standings
60%
Market
50%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Marseille in strong form (3W in last 5)
Lille in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.