Championship · Mar 21, 2026 12:30
Derby
PWR 37
Birmingham
PWR 36
Derby
PWR 37
1-1
predicted
Birmingham
PWR 36
49%
24%
27%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
43%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (13%)1-0 (13%)2-1 (9%)1-1 (9%)3-0 (9%)3-1 (6%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
BTTS
No 44%
Over 3.5
29%
Team Comparison
44Attack41
63Defense62
Goals/G
1.51.4
Conc/G
1.21.3
Possession
?%?%
Corners/G
??
Shots/G
??
Fouls/G
??
Derby
LWWLL
STABLE
Birmingham
DWLLL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk26%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateHome team draws 32% at home = very high riskSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw ratePoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateH2H: 2/6 draws (33%) = HIGH risk
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.1
Expected Goals (xG)
2.05
Derbyvs
0.71
BirminghamGoal Probability
Derby
0
13%
1
26%
2
27%
3
19%
4
10%
Birmingham
0
49%
1
35%
2
12%
3
3%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (12%)2-0 (11%)1-1 (11%)2-1 (10%)0-0 (7%)3-0 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 7% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 76% | 25% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% | - |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 14% | 86% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 6% | 94% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
League Position
#8
Derby+1
Gap#9
Birmingham
WR 37% 54 pts
WR 26% 53 pts
Derby
8.0%
| Mar 10 | Derby v Millwall | 1-0 |
| Mar 07 | Derby v Sheffie… | 2-1 |
| Feb 28 | Derby v Blackbu… | 3-1 |
| Feb 24 | Derby v Hull Ci… | 4-2 |
| Feb 21 | Derby v Watford | 2-0 |
| Feb 14 | Derby v Swansea | 2-0 |
| Feb 07 | Derby v Ipswich | 1-2 |
| Jan 30 | Derby v Bristol… | 0-5 |
| Jan 23 | Derby v West Br… | 1-1 |
| Jan 20 | Derby v Charlton | 1-2 |
Birmingham
6.0%
| Mar 14 | Birming… v Sheffie… | 1-1 |
| Mar 11 | Birming… v QPR | 1-0 |
| Mar 07 | Birming… v Charlton | 1-0 |
| Mar 02 | Birming… v Middles… | 1-3 |
| Feb 25 | Birming… v Millwall | 3-0 |
| Feb 21 | Birming… v Norwich… | 1-2 |
| Feb 15 | Birming… v Leeds | 1-1 |
| Feb 10 | Birming… v West Br… | 0-0 |
| Feb 07 | Birming… v Leicest… | 2-1 |
| Jan 31 | Birming… v Oxford … | 0-2 |
Head-to-Head (6)
| Dec 26, 2025 | Birmingham | 1-1 | Derby |
| Jan 30, 2022 | Derby | 2-2 | Birmingham |
| Sep 10, 2021 | Birmingham | 2-0 | Derby |
| Apr 24, 2021 | Derby | 1-2 | Birmingham |
| Dec 29, 2020 | Birmingham | 0-4 | Derby |
| Jul 22, 2020 | Birmingham | 1-3 | Derby |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
85%
Standings
55%
Market
50%
High draw risk (32%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Derby struggling (3L in last 5)
Birmingham struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.