Primeira Liga · Mar 21, 2026 15:30
Famalicao
PWR 35
Nacional
PWR 35
Famalicao
PWR 35
3-1
predicted
Nacional
PWR 35
63%
21%
16%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Famalicao Win
Score
3-1
Confidence
68%
TierGOLD
LIKELY SCORES
3-0 (14%)2-0 (10%)1-0 (4%)3-1 (3%)2-1 (2%)0-0 (1%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
BTTS
No
No 18%
Over 3.5
21%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Famalicao
WWDWL
STABLE
Nacional
LDLLL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk28%
Accuracy73%
FORM_DOMINANTPOSITION_GAPPOINTS_GAP
Standings data available (Tier 2)H2H: 1/3 draws (33%) = HIGH riskConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (28.3%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
4.42
Famalicaovs
0.20
NacionalGoal Probability
Famalicao
0
1%
1
5%
2
12%
3
17%
4
19%
Nacional
0
82%
1
16%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (16%)2-0 (13%)1-1 (11%)0-0 (10%)2-1 (9%)3-0 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 91% | 10% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% | - |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 9% | 91% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 3% | 97% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
League Position
#6
Famalicao+10
Gap#16
Nacional
WR 54% 42 pts
WR 15% 22 pts
Famalicao
14.0%
| Mar 14 | Famalic… v Guimara… | 1-2 |
| Mar 06 | Famalic… v Arouca | 1-0 |
| Mar 01 | Famalic… v Rio Ave… | 0-0 |
| Feb 23 | Famalic… v Casa Pi… | 2-0 |
| Feb 15 | Famalic… v Sportin… | 1-0 |
| Feb 09 | Famalic… v AVS | 3-1 |
| Feb 01 | Famalic… v GIL Vic… | 5-0 |
| Jan 25 | Famalic… v Tondela | 3-0 |
| Jan 18 | Famalic… v Santa C… | 0-1 |
| Jan 04 | Famalic… v Alverca | 1-0 |
Nacional
2.0%
| Mar 15 | Nacional v Estoril | 0-1 |
| Mar 07 | Nacional v Moreire… | 1-1 |
| Feb 28 | Nacional v SC Braga | 1-2 |
| Feb 21 | Nacional v Arouca | 3-0 |
| Feb 15 | Nacional v FC Porto | 0-1 |
| Feb 08 | Nacional v Casa Pi… | 0-0 |
| Feb 01 | Nacional v Sportin… | 2-1 |
| Jan 25 | Nacional v Rio Ave… | 4-0 |
| Jan 17 | Nacional v GIL Vic… | 2-1 |
| Jan 11 | Nacional v Santa C… | 3-3 |
Head-to-Head (3)
| Nov 01, 2025 | Nacional | 0-1 | Famalicao |
| Mar 01, 2025 | Nacional | 2-1 | Famalicao |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Famalicao | 0-0 | Nacional |
Decision Breakdown
S70+DR<22 (82.1%)S75+DR<25 (81.8%)M75+S65+DR<22 (81.1%)M70+S70+DR<22 (80.6%)M85+S60 (75.3%)POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)CS65+DR<30 (68.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
80%
Market
50%
Key Factors
Famalicao in strong form (3W in last 5)
Nacional struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.