La Liga · Mar 20, 2026 20:00
Villarreal
PWR 43
Real Sociedad
PWR 35
Villarreal
PWR 43
4-1
predicted
Real Sociedad
PWR 35
45%
25%
30%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Villarreal Win
Score
4-1
Confidence
42%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
3-0 (8%)3-1 (8%)2-0 (8%)2-1 (8%)1-0 (5%)1-1 (5%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
68%
68%
Under 2.5
32%
BTTS
Yes
Yes 60%
Over 3.5
58%
58%
Team Comparison
56Attack41
67Defense59
Goals/G
1.91.4
Conc/G
1.11.4
Possession
?%?%
Corners/G
??
Shots/G
??
Fouls/G
??
Villarreal
DWLWW
STABLE
Real Sociedad
WLWWD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk24%
Accuracy38%
POINTS_GAP
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (24.1%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
3.03
Villarrealvs
1.00
Real SociedadGoal Probability
Villarreal
0
5%
1
15%
2
22%
3
22%
4
17%
Real Socied…
0
37%
1
37%
2
18%
3
6%
4
2%
CORRECT SCORES
1-2 (8%)1-1 (7%)2-2 (7%)2-1 (6%)1-3 (6%)2-3 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 2% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 58% | 42% | - |
| 4.5 | 38% | 62% | - |
| 5.5 | 22% | 78% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 12% | 88% | UNDER |
League Position
#4
Villarreal+3
Gap#7
Real Socied…
WR 79% 55 pts
WR 21% 38 pts
Villarreal
14.0%
| Mar 13 | Villarr… v Alavés | 1-1 |
| Mar 08 | Villarr… v Elche | 2-1 |
| Feb 28 | Villarr… v Barcelo… | 4-1 |
| Feb 22 | Villarr… v Valencia | 2-1 |
| Feb 18 | Villarr… v Levante | 0-1 |
| Feb 14 | Villarr… v Getafe | 2-1 |
| Feb 09 | Villarr… v Espanyol | 4-1 |
| Jan 31 | Villarr… v Osasuna | 2-2 |
| Jan 28 | Villarr… v Bayer L… | 3-0 |
| Jan 24 | Villarr… v Real Ma… | 0-2 |
Real Sociedad
14.0%
| Mar 15 | Real So… v Osasuna | 3-1 |
| Mar 07 | Real So… v Atlétic… | 3-2 |
| Mar 04 | Real So… v Athleti… | 1-0 |
| Feb 28 | Real So… v Mallorca | 0-1 |
| Feb 21 | Real So… v Oviedo | 3-3 |
| Feb 14 | Real So… v Real Ma… | 4-1 |
| Feb 11 | Real So… v Athleti… | 0-1 |
| Feb 07 | Real So… v Elche | 3-1 |
| Feb 04 | Real So… v Alavés | 2-3 |
| Feb 03 | Real So… v Notting… | 0-1 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Nov 30, 2025 | Real Sociedad | 2-3 | Villarreal |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Villarreal | 2-2 | Real Sociedad |
| Jan 13, 2025 | Real Sociedad | 1-0 | Villarreal |
| Feb 23, 2024 | Real Sociedad | 1-3 | Villarreal |
| Feb 23, 2024 | Real Sociedad | 1-3 | Villarreal |
| Dec 09, 2023 | Villarreal | 0-3 | Real Sociedad |
| Dec 09, 2023 | Villarreal | 0-3 | Real Sociedad |
| Apr 02, 2023 | Villarreal | 2-0 | Real Sociedad |
| Oct 09, 2022 | Real Sociedad | 1-0 | Villarreal |
| May 15, 2022 | Villarreal | 1-2 | Real Sociedad |
Decision Breakdown
HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%)M85+S60 (75.3%)HOME_FORT (73.3%)HWR60+ (68.3%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
72%
Market
50%
High draw risk (25%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Villarreal in strong form (3W in last 5)
Real Sociedad in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.