Eredivisie · Mar 15, 2026 13:30
AZ Alkmaar
PWR 35
Heracles
PWR 35
AZ Alkmaar
PWR 35
4 - 0
FT
Heracles
PWR 35
61%
22%
17%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
1X (Home/Draw)
Double Chance · Odds imply 67% home + 19% draw = 86% combined
92%
accuracy
1.22x
Final Verdict
Prediction
AZ Alkmaar Win
Score
4-1
Confidence
63%
TierGOLD
LIKELY SCORES
3-0 (9%)2-0 (6%)3-1 (6%)2-1 (4%)1-0 (3%)3-2 (2%)
CORRECT 4-0
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
DC 1X
86%
Home/Draw
1.22x
DC X2
Away/Draw
3.18x
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
BTTS
No 45%
Over 3.5
64%
64%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
AZ Alkmaar
LWLWW
STABLE
Heracles
DLLLL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk21%
Accuracy73%
AWAY_LEAKINGPOSITION_GAPPOINTS_GAP
Full data available (Tier 1)Home team draws 38% at home = very high riskElevated draw risk (20.6%) - consider AHElite league - reduced thresholdBelow minimum tier (need PREMIUM+, got GOLD/3 rules)
Expected Goals (xG)
4.50
AZ Alkmaarvs
0.61
HeraclesGoal Probability
AZ Alkmaar
0
1%
1
5%
2
11%
3
17%
4
19%
Heracles
0
54%
1
33%
2
10%
3
2%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
3-0 (12%)4-0 (11%)2-0 (9%)5-0 (9%)3-1 (7%)4-1 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 99% | 1% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 82% | 18% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 64% | 36% | - |
| 4.5 | 45% | 55% | - |
| 5.5 | 28% | 72% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 16% | 84% | UNDER |
League Position
#6
AZ Alkmaar+12
Gap#18
Heracles
WR 46% 42 pts
WR 7% 18 pts
AZ Alkmaar
12.0%
| Mar 07 | AZ Alkm… v PSV Ein… | 2-1 |
| Mar 04 | AZ Alkm… v Telstar | 2-1 |
| Mar 01 | AZ Alkm… v Utrecht | 2-0 |
| Feb 26 | AZ Alkm… v Artsakh | 4-0 |
| Feb 22 | AZ Alkm… v Sparta … | 3-1 |
| Feb 19 | AZ Alkm… v Artsakh | 1-0 |
| Feb 14 | AZ Alkm… v Excelsi… | 1-2 |
| Feb 08 | AZ Alkm… v Ajax | 1-1 |
| Feb 03 | AZ Alkm… v FC Twen… | 2-1 |
| Jan 31 | AZ Alkm… v NEC Nij… | 1-3 |
Heracles
2.0%
| Mar 06 | Heracles v Utrecht | 0-0 |
| Feb 28 | Heracles v PSV Ein… | 1-3 |
| Feb 22 | Heracles v GO Ahea… | 4-0 |
| Feb 14 | Heracles v NAC Bre… | 0-1 |
| Feb 07 | Heracles v NEC Nij… | 4-1 |
| Feb 01 | Heracles v Fortuna… | 2-1 |
| Jan 31 | Heracles v Bashkim… | 1-1 |
| Jan 28 | Heracles v Rudar | 1-0 |
| Jan 25 | Heracles v Feyenoo… | 4-2 |
| Jan 18 | Heracles v FC Twen… | 0-2 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Sep 14, 2025 | Heracles | 1-2 | AZ Alkmaar |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Heracles | 1-0 | AZ Alkmaar |
| Feb 27, 2025 | Heracles | 2-2 | AZ Alkmaar |
| Dec 01, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 1-0 | Heracles |
| Dec 01, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 1-0 | Heracles |
| Apr 03, 2024 | Heracles | 5-0 | AZ Alkmaar |
| Apr 03, 2024 | Heracles | 5-0 | AZ Alkmaar |
| Sep 28, 2023 | AZ Alkmaar | 1-1 | Heracles |
| Feb 19, 2022 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-1 | Heracles |
| Dec 15, 2021 | AZ Alkmaar | 4-1 | Heracles |
Decision Breakdown
ODDS60+M70 (77.4%)M85+S60 (75.3%)POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
80%
Market
69%
High draw risk (32%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
AZ Alkmaar in strong form (3W in last 5)
Heracles struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.